Regional Projections

Current projections for climate change for South West Victoria were prepared by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 2012–2014. Projections are based on scenarios that calculate emissions growth through to the year 2100, compared with the 1986–2005 levels. Further information about the climate scenarios, climate stressors and timeframes can be found on the CSIRO website.

Key projections for the region are listed below:

  • average temperatures will continue to increase by 1.1–4.0 °C by 2030 in all scenarios
  • more hot days and warm spells, and fewer frosts
  • up to 15% less rainfall in the cool season by 2090, but changes to summer rainfall are less clear
  • increased intensity of extreme daily rainfall events
  • mean sea level will continue to rise between 0.39 and 0.89 m by 2090, and the height of extreme sea level events will also increase
  • a harsher fire-weather climate
  • natural climate variability will either enhance or mask long-term trends from year to year, particularly in the near future, and for rainfall.

CSIRO, Climate change in Australia projections cluster report – Southern slopes, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 2015.

Table 1 is a list of changes in climate that are projected by CSIRO, for the Corangamite region, over the next 75 years. The level of confidence by CSIRO in this information is also summarised in Table 3. For further and update projected information on climate change projections for our region, visit www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/impacts-and-adaptation/southern-slopes

Table 1: Summary of Climatic Projections for the South West Region

Climatic projections for the Corangamite region Level of confidence (CSIRO)
Less rainfall in winter and spring High confidence
Average temperatures to continue to increase in all seasons Very high confidence
More hot days and warm spells Very high confidence
Fewer frost days High confidence
Increased intensity of extreme rainfall events High confidence
Time spent in drought to increase Medium confidence
Sea level to continue to increase Very high confidence
Harsher fire-weather climate High confidence
Evapotranspiration is projected to increase High confidence
Increase in solar radiation and decrease in relative humidity High confidence