Fire Projections for South West Victoria Wildfire in Kentbruck, 2013

Fire weather is a measure of fuel dryness and hot, dry, windy conditions.

An increase in frequency of very high and extreme fire danger days is projected.

Relative to the climate of 1974-2003, by 2020 it is expected the number of ‘extreme’ fire danger days will generally increase by between 5 per cent and 40 per cent.

The projected warmer and drier weather in the future is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

By 2050 this is expected to further increase by between 15 per cent and 25 per cent (under a lower emissions growth scenario) or by 120 per cent and 230 per cent (under a higher emissions growth scenario).

In the future, the Barwon South West can expect:

Harsher fire weather