Table 15 provides an outline of potential data sources for climate exposure within the Barwon South West Region. Data selected is supported by CSIRO, can provide complete coverage of the Region, address the key climate variables and can be represented spatially. Please note that secondary variable modelling for bushfire conditions and flooding were not included, however where existing regional data was available it has been incorporated in the sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicator layers for environment (refer to Table 17).
| Climate variable | Data used |
|---|---|
| Primary | |
| Mean temperature | IPCC Fourth Assessment statistically downscaled using SimCLIM and local Bureau of Metrology sites. |
| Extreme temperature | IPCC Fourth Assessment statistically downscaled using SimCLIM and local Bureau of Metrology sites. |
| Annual rainfall | IPCC Fourth Assessment statistically downscaled using SimCLIM and local Bureau of Metrology sites. |
| Extreme rainfall | IPCC Fourth Assessment statistically downscaled using SimCLIM and local Bureau of Metrology sites. |
| Sea level rise and storm surge | Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries - Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset – Medium scenario for 2100 (0.82m) for both Modelled Extent of Sea Level Rise with a 1 in 100 Year Storm Tide Event using A1FI. |
Table 15: Climate exposure data
Modelling assumptions for primary climate variables have been included in Table 16, highlighting consistencies with approaches applied by CSIRO, Victorian State Government and international better practice.
| Aspect | Assumption | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Emissions scenario | A1FI |
The A1FI is a higher emissions growth scenario and assumes a continuation of strong economic growth based on continued dependence on fossil fuels. CO2 concentrations more than triple, relative to pre-industrial levels, by 2100. A global temperature increase of 4.0 °C (2.4 to 6.4 °C) is likely. This scenario represents the highest level of late 21st century emissions that were thought to be plausible back in 2000. However, recent evidence indicates that CO2 emissions have been growing at a more rapid rate. This is consistent with the Victorian State Government’s approach for their high-end projections and the sea level rise data as part of the Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset. |
| Global climate models (GCMs) | All 23 GCMs | All GCMs were used unweighted in the modelling. |
| Year |
Baseline year of 1990 Mid run projected year of 2030 Long run projected year of 2070 |
This is consistent with best practice and the Victorian State Government’s approach. 2100 for sea level rise only. |
| Period | Annual | This includes all seasons. |
| Extremes |
40°C for extreme heat events 50mm for single rainfall events |
35°C used for areas with high sensitivity. |
Table 16: Primary climate variable modelling assumptions
General comment on data layers
Sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators
