Risks

Taking the findings from Stage 1 of the Project into consideration (as outlined in Section 4 of this report), the group undertook an activity which focused on identifying the main risks for their

Taking the findings from Stage 1 of the Project into consideration (as outlined in Section 4 of this report), the group undertook an activity which focused on identifying the main risks for their organisations and for the Region. This was based on a suite of scenarios made up of the expected future changes to the climate exposure (temperature, precipitation, sea level rise) and the Region’s sensitivities (social, economic and environmental).

The risk statements that were raised are in the following table.

Exposure Indicator Vulnerability Indicator
Social Economic Environmental

Temperature

An increase in mean temperature and/or extreme heat events could lead to:
  • Health impacts on vulnerable people
  • Increased recreational use of waterways
  • Increased costs from needing to build resilience
  • Potentially reduced economic growth
  • Increased water needs/demand (mainly irrigation and outdoor)
  • People and businesses lose access to water and energy (load shedding, inadequate back up/generators)
  • An increased risk of bushfire
    • fire damages infrastructure
    • fire impacts water quality and yield
  • Increased evaporation and transpiration reducing water resource availability and increasing water required for irrigation
  • Direct damage to crops
  • Blue green algae risk increases
  • Salinity, eutrophication
  • Reduced waterway flows, water quality (including temperature), including estuaries and wetlands
  • Impacts on ecological functions, reducing ecosystem services – habitat loss and more favourable habitat for pests

Precipitation

A decrease in precipitation and less frequent 50mm rainfall events could lead to:
  • Increased water restrictions
  • Inability to water gardens/playing fields
  • Corangamite Catchment Management Authority - loss of onground works (approx. $1 mill per year)
  • VicRoads –
    • Linear cracking increases on roads
    • Drainage requirements
    • Climate change not used in current design
    • Increase landslips increases infrastructure costs
  • Increase in bushfires reduces water quality
  • Increased flooding events increases fish kills (estuaries)
  • Increasing bushfire risk increases the impacts on biodiversity (populations e.g. fish) due to fragmentation – wiped out, especially refugia sites
  • Increased acid sulphate soils
  • Increased demand for dams/ fire control/ etc – all impacting on natural resource management assets

Sea Level Rise

A SLR and/or storm surge could lead to:
  • Higher demand to access the coast but could be restricted access
  • Community expectation of coast access, increased restrictions, difficult to manage – education needed
  • Private land impacted by inundation after public land – who is liable for protection e.g. Port Fairy private properties – public liability and apportioning
  • Policy uncertainty and changes (comparing new beneficiaries pay approaches in flood commission)
  • Tourism impacts – curtailed for any reason – loss of tourism and income – caravan parks in particular
  • Managing development (subdivisions) in exposed areas, more people and properties exposed, and more cost to move infrastructure if retreat needed
  • Increased pressure on available/viable land to develop and use
  • Great Ocean Road and other single roads access/ egress – will shrink access routes, also emergency response impacts
  • Loss of habitat mangroves, salt marshes (less sunlight), less blue carbon capture

Table 9: Regional risks

Regional partner strategic discussion

Actions

Table of Contents
Search this report
Glossary of definitions
Print this page
Download PDF version